Staying Safe and Sane

In New Zealand, the Family Violence Act 2018 and decades of longitudinal research (like the world-renowned Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study) prove one critical truth: The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior.

For a victim, understanding this isn’t about blaming yourself for staying; it’s about accurately assessing the “weather” of your relationship so you can stay safe.

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1. The Principle of Escalation

Abuse is rarely static; it is a progressive system. Research shows that if an abuser is not held accountable (by the law or intensive professional intervention), the “floor” of their behavior becomes the “ceiling” for the next incident.

• The “Testing” Phase: Past behaviors like “checking your phone” or “mild” name-calling were tests of boundaries. If these were successful in controlling you, the pattern reflects that the abuser will move to more severe tactics (like isolation or financial control) to maintain that same level of power.
• The Predictive Power of Non-Physical Abuse: NZ Police and Women’s Refuge data show that psychological abuse is the strongest predictor of future physical violence. If they have historically “gaslit” you or destroyed your property, the pattern suggests they are capable of physical harm when psychological control no longer works.

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2. Specific High-Risk Past Behaviors

In the NZ “Family Harm” risk assessment (used by Police), certain past actions are red flags for future lethality:

• Strangulation (Choking): If they have ever put their hands on your neck, research indicates they are 7 times more likely to eventually kill you. This past behavior is the single most significant predictor of future domestic homicide.
• Threats to Kill: If they have threatened to kill you, your children, or themselves in the past, the pattern reflects a high probability of an attempt during a “high-stress” event (like you leaving).
• Stalking & Monitoring: If they have a history of “turning up” or using technology to track you, they are likely to escalate this behavior into physical pursuit if they feel you are slipping away.

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3. The “Honeymoon” Trap

Past behavior also includes the “Good Times.” In New Zealand, we recognize that the “Honeymoon” phase (apologies, gifts, promises to change) is actually a functional part of the abuse cycle.

• The Pattern: If they have promised to change 5 times before and didn’t, the future behavior is almost certainly a 6th broken promise.
• The Insight: Remorse without active, long-term professional intervention (like a certified NZ stopping-violence program) is just a “reset button” for the next explosion.

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4. Why “Staying for the Kids” is a Risk

The Dunedin Study found that children who witness family violence are at a significantly higher risk of becoming either victims or perpetrators in adulthood.

• Past as Prologue: If your children are seeing violence now, the “future behavior” being modeled for them is that power is gained through fear. Breaking the pattern now protects their future relationships.

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5. Summary: What the Patterns Tell You

Past Behavior	Future Reflection
They blamed you for their anger.	They will continue to avoid accountability.
They isolated you from whānau.	They will escalate control to prevent you from seeking help.
They used “minor” physical force.	The severity of force will likely increase over time.
They “recalled” events differently (Gaslighting).	You will continue to doubt your own sanity and reality.

The “Sanity” Reality Check

“An abuser’s history is a map of their future. If the map has always led to fear, it will not suddenly lead to peace without a total change of direction (professional help and accountability).”